This week

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Round projections, historical trends, course fit, and market odds for the current field.

Fair Price Settings

Choose which sportsbooks contribute to the market-average fair price. The sportsbook offering the best actionable price is always excluded from that row's fair estimate; DataGolf remains an independent source. Apply & rescan updates the odds screen.

Picking a method

Methods affect two-way matchup and make/miss-cut vig removal. Three-balls and full-field placement markets use multiplicative normalization.

Tip: Standard multiplicative devig is the default. Use Worst case for the most conservative fair probability.

Default

100% weight

One book carries full consensus weight.

Split weights

Apply saves preferences and rebuilds the Odds Screen.

Odds Screen

Compare the best available sportsbook price with a leave-one-out fair price built from the other books after vig removal and DataGolf. Alpha Caddie's model is not used for EV on this screen.

Toolbar

Golfer
Limit the table to one player.
Market
Show only one product type (for example round matchups, tournament matchups, win, top 10).
Best books
Pick one sportsbook to keep only rows where the best price for that bet is there, or All books to show every book.
Max odds
Hide longshots at that American price or longer. The default 10000 keeps odds below +10000.
Bankroll ($)
Your bankroll for the quarter Kelly dollar suggestion (subject to the app’s stake caps).
Boost / Boost %
Turn on when a promo boosts profit on winning bets; EV and displayed best odds follow the boost.
Fair price
Opens source weights and the devig method used to remove sportsbook margin.

Table columns

EV
Expected value of the best available price using the combined market/DataGolf fair probability.
Kelly
Suggested quarter Kelly stake in dollars from the bankroll above, using the boosted best price.
Best book
Where that best price lives; American odds (boosted when a boost is on).
Golfer
Who the bet is on.
Fair odds / Fair %
Combined fair price from devigged prices at books other than the best-price book, plus DataGolf.
DataGolf
DataGolf's fair price, shown separately and included as one independent fair source.
Market avg
Average fair price after each eligible competing sportsbook is devigged.
Sources
Number of independent prices used for the combined fair estimate.
Market
Whether the row is a matchup type or an outright market.
Bet
The exact matchup wording or outright label.

Fair-price settings

Open Fair price to choose which competing books feed EV and Kelly. For every row, the best-price sportsbook is automatically left out of the fair estimate to prevent circular EV.

Tip: Try Average or Multiplicative first. Use Worst case when you want a cautious read on an edge.

Round projections

Columns

Golfer / Market / Side
Who, which stat, and Over or Under on the book line.
Proj
Model projection for that stat this round.
Average
Player historical average for that market in the selected window (This season, last N rounds, or at this course).
DK / PP Line & Odds
DraftKings and PrizePicks posted lines and American prices for the side shown.
DK Edge / PP Edge
Model probability minus implied probability from each book's odds (computed per book when a line is posted).

Model

Course-adaptive
One projection path: recent form, course history, and strokes gained weighted by what this course demands (from course table). No mode or skill picker.

Historical Trends

Chart & KPIs

Bars
Actual result vs the line (green = under, red = over on score-like stats).
All-time / season / graph avg
Career mean, this season, and mean of rounds shown in the chart.
Course avg
Field average at this venue (season and all-time).
Over / under hit rate
How often the golfer beat the line in the selected window.

Filters

This week's field
Chart every golfer in this week's projection field. Defaults to all rounds in the current season year (2026). Use Course, Year, Current course only, and optional From/To dates to narrow further.
Current course only
Limit to rounds at this week's venue (The Renaissance Club, etc.). Works in single-golfer mode and with This week's field.
Course dropdown
Limit to one course by name.
Weather filters
Optional temp, wind, and humidity bands.
Stat
Round score, counting stats, strokes gained (total, tee-to-green, OTT, approach, ARG, putting), GIR %, fairways %, or raw GIR/fairway counts. SG and % stats use 0.1 line steps; no sportsbook lines are posted for SG.
Rounds / line
How many recent rounds to chart and which O/U line to test.

Matchup Analysis Tool

What each column header means on this tab.

Prices & edge

Golfer name
Column for that side of the matchup.
Model
Estimated win probability for that golfer.
Market
Implied win probability from the posted prices.
Edge
Expected value vs fair at the price shown (positive is favorable).
Odds
American odds for that golfer at the listed book.
Best Book
Best actionable decimal price among supported sportsbooks on the Odds Screen.

Strokes gained vs field

Shown for head-to-head markets only. The section is hidden for 3-balls.

Metric
Stat being compared on that row.
Golfer columns
That golfer’s value for the metric, with a bar for scale.
Field %
Share of the field with a strictly lower value on that metric (higher is better).
Advantage
Which golfer leads and by how much on that row.

Metric definitions

SG: Total
Overall DataGolf skill rating in strokes gained per round versus the field.
SG: Tee-to-Green
Combined non-putting skill: off the tee, approach, and around the green.
SG: Off the Tee
Driving skill after tee shots, including distance, accuracy, and position gained.
SG: Approach
Iron and approach-shot skill after the tee shot before short game or putting.
SG: Around Green
Short-game skill near the green, excluding putting.
SG: Putting
Putting skill measured as strokes gained on the greens.
Driving distance rating
DataGolf yards vs an average PGA Tour field (from skill-ratings); when live measured drives exist, the table can show absolute yards instead.
Accuracy rating
DataGolf skill-rating driving accuracy value, shown as points versus the field baseline.

Round Matchups

Browse head-to-head and three-ball markets. Each row lists both players, a model win percentage, estimated EV, and the best posted price on the board.

Market and round

Use Market to switch tournament, single-round, or three-ball lists. The active round matches Round projections automatically. Adjust Weather and Pricing on other tabs to update fair win chances here.

Pricing

The Pricing row mirrors the rest of the app: pick a mode when the read should lean on form, this course, or a skill pillar.

Outrights

Choose a market (win, places, cut, and so on), then compare the Model column to each book. Tap headers to sort. Use Refresh projections after updating odds outside the app so the table matches the latest file.

Weather and pricing

Weather and projection controls affect this model-driven matchup analysis. The Odds Screen is market-priced separately from this tool.

Course fit

This tab compares how players match the current field and how much this week’s venue profile stresses different parts of the game. Use it when you care whether someone’s strengths line up with what the track tends to reward or punish.

Two views

Adjustments — Radar chart, course similarity, and the course ratings table (full field). Past events — Historical round-prop distributions at this course from archived tournament rounds.

Adjustments

Golfer selector
Pick a golfer to overlay their profile on the radar. With no selection you still see how the venue curve differs from the field.
Course filter
Choose which venue’s historical profile drives the green venue curve and the similarity list; it defaults to this week’s course from projections.
Radar
Each spoke is a skill area (Driving Accuracy, Off Tee, Approach, Around Green, Putting, Driving Distance). The shapes show Field Avg (dashed baseline), the selected course profile (green), an optional comparison course from the similarity list (blue), and your selected golfer (gold). The chart uses normalized profiles (0–1), not strokes gained.
Course similarity
A ranked list of other venues whose historical shape is closest to this one. Click a row to highlight it and draw that course’s profile on the radar; click again to clear.

Course ratings table

Lists every player in the current tournament field. All numeric cells are course-fit ratings (field-relative scores). They are not strokes gained and are not the same units as SG columns elsewhere in the app.

Golfer
Name only. Use the search box to filter.
Drv Acc, Off Tee, Approach, Arg, Putt, Distance
One column per radar spoke. Each value is that player’s skill vs the field on that dimension (z-scored across everyone in the table). 0 ≈ average; positive = stronger than the field on that spoke; negative = weaker. These are not strokes gained. See Course rating for overall fit to this venue’s radar profile.
Course rating
Overall fit to this venue: each spoke’s field z-score is weighted by that spoke’s demand on the green radar profile (Approach uses iron-play demand, not raw ARG splits), then z-scored across the field. Higher = skills that matter most here, relative to everyone else. Round projections still use the separate course_table SG×coefficient adjustment.
Winner, Top 5, Top 10, Top 20
Best available sportsbook outright prices for that player (separate from the rating columns).
Sort
Click any column header to sort. Green/red coloring only highlights positive vs negative ratings, not EV or SG.

Past events

Analyze Past Events
Select one or more prior tournaments played at the course in the sidebar (from player-history/by-course shards).
Round / Round Prop
Filter to a single round or all rounds, and pick the counting stat (score, birdies, pars, bogeys, fairways, GIR).
Tournament Average chart
One value per player per event: the mean of that stat across the selected round(s) at that tournament. With a golfer filter, you get one bar per year they played (e.g. 2024 avg 65.8, 2025 avg 68.5).
Individual Rounds chart
Every completed round in the filter. Means can differ from the tournament chart when one year has more rounds (missed cut vs weekend).